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Here we go around the world in four ads. Ready? Bartle Bogle Hegarty's New York office is responsible for another elegant and imaginative spot for Unilever's Vaseline brand. It doesn't quite have the wow effect of the previous spots (which featured synchronised gymnastics by hundreds of naked models, representing individual skin cells) but is still stunning. 

To Belgium now, a country which witnessed the collapse of two of its biggest banks over the last few months. Publicis-owned Duval Guillaume is responsible for this timely spot for financial and insurance giant Axa.

Australia's BMF Advertising (also named as the country's agency of the year this week - see below) has two great ads out for Dare iced coffee. Both made us laugh (a lot), but we had to choose one. Catch up with the other one here.

And finally, call us sentimental, but we really like the new ad for the UK's National Lottery by AMV BBDO. What an improvement on previous campaigns for the Lottery, which always seemed to feature four-leaf clovers, giant hands and magical fairies. Touching and sexy and funny and also strangely inspiring...

In the news this past week: Advertisers

Black! Black! It's all gone black! The gloomy outlook for next year was reinforced by several new reports, which predict further sharp declines in advertising expenditure and, as a result, more pain to come for mediaowners. The industry tends to regard annual growth in advertising spend as its most important metric. According to a study from WPP's GroupM media division, UK media investment will have fallen by 3% this year, and will decline by a further 6% in 2009. The biggest losers will be business magazines, with spend down by an anticipated 14%. Newspapers will also suffer a double-digit decline, while radio and TV will shed 8% and 6% respectively. As a result, internet-related advertising will overtake TV as the biggest medium, although even its growth will slow dramatically, to under 4% for the year. GroupM expects global spend growth to stall at 0.2% next year.

ZenithOptimedia issued the same forecast for 2009, having revised its previous 4.0% growth prediction in light of the continuing economic deterioration. It now expects the figure for North America to decline from 0.2% growth, which it predicted in October, to a 5.7% decline. The fall in the US alone is even steeper at 6.2%. (A similar update from Interpublic's Magna Global has US spend down 4.5% and global spend down 0.3%). Zenith slashed the figure for Western Europe from 2.6% growth to a 1.0% decline, while economic instability in some key countries prompted a cut in the growth rate for Central & Eastern Europe from 12.7% to 1.5%. The group was still bullish on the four key developing economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China. Brazil is still expected to achieve spectacular growth of as much as 30%. (Quick! Let's all go there instead). India is expected to see a 13% increase, while China and Russia will hit 9% and 5% respectively. Latin America as a whole will increase almost 15% while Asia Pacific as a whole will see 3.2%. Zenith currently anticipates a "mild recovery" in worldwide spending in 3Q 2009, with 5.5% growth in 2010

Separately, credit monitor Fitch Ratings presented a grim picture of the US media and entertainment sector in 2009 in the wake of the current recession. It singled out broadcast network CBS as being the most vulnerable of the US TV broadcasters because of its dependence on advertising, which provides as much as 70% of revenues. In addition, it has more than $2bn of debt due for repayment or refinancing in 2010 and 2011, and controlling shareholder Sumner Redstone is himself under continuing pressure to raise cash to meet his own various financial obligations. However the sector which is most at risk, in Fitch's view, is newspapers. (See also Media below for this week's Tribune story). There was no sugar coating on the agency's prediction that "more newspapers and newspaper groups will default, be shut down and be liquidated in 2009 and several cities could go without a daily print newspaper by 2010". Fitch also anticipates increased consolidation among Yellowpages and magazine titles as a result of closure of less profitable titles. See also CBS profile on Adbrands.net.

Amid all the doom and gloom, however, there was a glimmer of light for Detroit. Political leaders are close to signing off on a short-term bailout of America's struggling auto industry. A draft bill was approved yesterday by the House of Representatives, but must now get through the Senate where it is likely to take a beating today from some Republicans, who lean towards the short sharp shock of bankruptcy restructuring. Alabama Senator Richard Shelby, for example, went on the record in opposition of any bill. "This is just the down payment," he said, "on billions and billions to come. These are failed or failing companies." He's almost certainly correct, but the domino effects from bankruptcy could be even more costly. If the bill does go through, General Motors and Chrysler will receive up to $15bn of immediate emergency loans to allow them to continue trading into the new year. In one of his last acts as president, George W Bush will then appoint a senior lawmaker to serve as what is being called the government's "car czar". He (or she) will oversee all aspects of the companies' performance over the coming months to determine whether or not they should get additional help next year. Ford says it does not need immediate cash assistance but will also be monitored, and be eligible for future funding if and when required. The car czar will be required to authorise any expenditure by the three in excess of $25m, including advertising expenditure. See also General Motors, Ford, Chrysler profiles on Adbrands.net.

In the mean time, Democratic senator Chris Dodd called on GM chairman-CEO Rick Wagoner to "move on". In support of that view, BusinessWeek.com columnist David Welch delivered a withering analysis of Wagoner's performance: "[His] record is almost impossible to defend. Since he became CEO, the company blew money on things like a $1.3bn stake in Subaru parent Fuji Heavy Industries, which yielded no cars or technology worth mentioning. He spent $2.4bn to get into Fiat Auto and another $2bn to get out. GM has also paid more than $4bn in dividends. That’s almost $10bn wasted. While squandering that money, GM borrowed some $18 billion to shore up its pension fund. At the same time, Wagoner cut capital spending early in the decade while many product lines - except the trucks and SUVs - went too long without a refresh. Brands like Saturn and even Chevrolet laboured on with inadequate marketing budgets. Hybrids were stiff armed and the EV1 electric car was killed. Like his predecessor Jack Smith, he made sure he took care of shareholders while the company often lagged in product and technology." Ouch.

As we've said before, it's not just Detroit. Honda sent shockwaves through the world of Formula 1 motor racing last Friday with the announcement that it will suspend all involvement in that sport to cut costs. This year alone Honda spent almost $220m on its F1 team, only to finish in 8th place in the tournament. "This difficult decision has been made in light of the quickly deteriorating operating environment facing the global auto industry," said Honda CEO Takeo Fukui. "Honda must protect its core business activities." Officially, the Honda F1 team has been put up for sale, but is unlikely to face a buyer before the start of the 2009 season, since the group has also now stopped manufacturing the cars' V8 engines. "At this stage we have no plans to return to F1," said Fukui. "We have no plans to supply engines to other teams. We do not want to be half in and half out of the sport." See also Honda profile on Adbrands.net.

Burger King has sparked off a storm of protest over its latest marketing campaign, entitled Whopper Virgins. In an update of the old Coke-Pepsi taste test, BK's ad agency Crispin Porter & Bogusky scoured the world to find remote regional tribes who had not yet ever experienced an American-style hamburger and then subjected them to an eat-off to see which they preferred: BK's own Whopper or the McDonalds Big Mac. Hard though it is to believe that there is anyone left in the world who doesn't actually know what a burger tastes like, they did manage to find some such "virgins" among the Hmong mountain people of Thailand, the Inuit tribesmen of Iceland, farmers in rural Transylvania. I bet you can't guess whose burger they preferred. The press, however, came from Americans who fear the stunt will be perceived as yet another example of US cultural imperialism, inflicting its own jaded culinary tastes on other indigenous peoples. Bloggers and some media commentators expressed their displeasure. We at Adbrands however were merely moderately amused by the idea. See the accompanying Whopper Virgins website for more. See also Burger King profile on Adbrands.net.

One of the founders of UK electronics retailer The Carphone Warehouse was forced to resign from the board after it was revealed that he had pledged around three-quarters of his 20% holding in the group as security for unrelated personal loans. David Ross started the business with Charles Dunstone in 1980, and served as chief operating officer until 2005. That year, he took up a non-executive role as deputy chairman in order to explore other interests. He serves on the board of several other companies including transport group National Express. Under FSA rulings, directors of public companies are required to declare any instances where they have sold shares or used them as guarantees of debt. As well as resigning from TCW, Ross has also quit as London mayor Boris Johnson's representative on the committee for the London 2012 Olympic games. See also The Carphone Warehouse profile on Adbrands.net.

The real "Wonder of Woolworths" was probably how it managed to keep going for so long. The group's administrators have failed to find a suitable buyer for either the retail chain or its wholesale subsidiary EUK, with the result that the entire business is likely to close down, at the cost of up to 32,000 jobs. The Financial Times also reported this week that British furniture retailer Land of Leather is struggling to find enough cash to pay its next rent bill, due on December 25th. If it can't raise the £6m it needs, it may be obliged to follow former rival MFI into administration. See also Woolworths profile on Adbrands.net.

We were sad to hear of the death at the age of just 54 of Michael Ganal, former marketing chief of BMW and most recently its head of finance. He died after a short but severe illness. See also BMW profile on Adbrands.net.

In the news this past week: Agencies

The two leading UK advertising and marketing titles named their Agencies of the Year today. Campaign selected Mother as Agency of the Year, with BBDO as Network of the Year. Mediacom was Media Agency with OMD as Media Network. The current Hovis ad was Campaign of the Year, and Transport for London was named as Advertiser of the Year. Other winners were AKQA (digital) and Elvis (direct). Sister title marketing picked Beattie McGuinness Bungay as Creative Agency of the Year, and Mediaedge:cia London as Media Agency. Other winners included Elvis again (direct) and Agency Republic (digital). See also Mother, BBDO, Mediacom, OMD, AKQA, BMB, Mediaedge:cia, Agency Republic profiles on Adbrands.net.

Eurobest, one of the last big advertising awards events of this year, also announced its winners. As its name suggests, the scheme recognises the best advertising from agencies across Europe. TBWA\Paris and DDB Berlin shared the accolade as European Agency of the Year, with DDB Amsterdam in third place. Sweden's Farfar was Interactive Agency of the year. The Film Grand Prix went to DDB London for its "Dog" ad for Volkswagen. A campaign for the same client by DDB Amsterdam took the Print Grand Prix.  Media went to MPG London for the BBC iPlayer campaign. See the full list of winners, including Gold, Silver and Bronze medals, here. Meanwhile, in Australia, Sydney's BMF was named as national Ad Agency of the Year in the awards event presented by local trade paper B&T. BMF also took home the overall Grand Prix, as well as the regional award for best agency in the state of New South Wales. Clemenger BBDO Melbourne was best Victoria agency, and the BBDO network also took the awards for other Australian states and New Zealand. CumminsNitro was best Queensland agency; Ikon Communications was Media Agency of the Year. See also TBWA\Paris, DDB Germany, DDB London, MPG, Clemenger BBDO, Nitro profiles on Adbrands.net.

In other news, Mark Cadman, CEO of Euro RSCG London, has left the agency suddenly as a result of what was described as "a difference of opinion over the future direction of the agency". The agency has lost several important accounts in recent weeks, including mobile service 3 and News Corp's Sun and News of the World newspapers. Cadman will not be directly replaced. Instead his role will be split between Russ Lidstone, currently managing partner and chief strategy officer, and executive creative director Mark Hunter. See also Euro RSCG London profile on Adbrands.net.

London media agency BJK&E, a standalone unit which has been controlled for several years by WPP, is to adopt the Maxus brand name in early 2009. It has represented the interests of that WPP-owned media network in the UK for several years. 

The Wall Street Journal reported on the launch by McCann Worldgroup of a new unit, named Barrio, set up to advise clients on the best ways to reach low income "emerging consumers" in Latin America. The creation of Barrio follows a two-year research project in which McCann staffers were sent to live for a week with Latin families who earn less than $700 a month in an attempt to gain a better understanding of the daily challenges they face. See more here. See also McCann Erickson profile on Adbrands.net.

In account assignments, US independent Richards Group was reappointed as lead agency for retail giant Home Depot, and also picked up Farmers Insurance. Lowe scored a much-needed victory, replacing JWT as the main agency on Unilever's global Knorr account in Europe and Asia. Pereira O'Dell, a start-up agency launched by two former AKQA execs, won the business of the University of Phoenix, a huge spender in online advertising, with an annual budget of more than $200m. HP called a review of pan-Euro creative for its PC business, out of McCann. For all other appointments, subscribers can access the full Adbrands Account Assignments database here. See also Richards, Home Depot, Lowe, Knorr, HP profiles on Adbrands.net.

In the news this past week: Media

In what is seen by some commentators as merely the first of many such instances, America's second largest newspaper publisher, Tribune Co, filed for bankruptcy protection. The company owns several of the country's best known daily newspapers including the Chicago Tribune, the Los Angeles Times and Baltimore Sun, as well as more than 20 local television stations. It was acquired earlier this year by property tycoon Sam Zell, who used just $315m of his own money to leverage an $8.2bn buyout of the business. However, the current credit crisis has left Zell unable to manage the group's excessive debts which now total $13bn, almost twice its $7.6bn of assets. Another iconic paper, the New York Times, is also struggling to restructure its own debts, including around $400m which falls due for repayment in May next year. The group is expected to launch a series of asset sales early in the new year, and hopes to borrow more than $200m against its Manhattan HQ.

In the UK, The Times reports today that the government is studying a proposal to spin off the commercial division of the BBC and merge it with struggling independent broadcast network Channel 4. Under the plan, Channel 4 would run the combined business, while the BBC would own a minority stake. Currently, Channel 4 has to raise its own funding from advertising and programme sales. The BBC is paid for out of the license fee contributed by all TV-owning households, but generates sizeable additional revenues from commercial exploitation of its brands through DVD sales and magazine publishing through the BBC Worldwide division.

Some key appointments at the online services division of Microsoft. Qi Lu, former head of Yahoo's search division, was named as the new president of Microsoft Online Services Group, which houses its advertising and search businesses. Lu reports directly to CEO Steve Ballmer and effectively replaces Kevin Johnson, who left earlier this year. One of the units under Lu's control is the former aQuantive, now consolidated into Microsoft Advertiser & Publisher Solutions. Its longtime head Brian McAndrews is also stepping down, and will be replaced by Scott Howe. See Microsoft, Yahoo profile on Adbrands.

The risk of an actors' strike in Hollywood has increased significantly in recent days as a result of the continuing deadlock in talks between the actors' unions and US film and television studios. Confident until now that the actors would not call a strike because of the pain they suffered during last winter's writers' strike, the studios have dug in their heels over terms. As a result, the main SAG union is now calling for a strike ballot as the only way of breaking the logjam in  talks to agree a new set of general terms for the employment of all TV and film actors. The last contract officially expired almost six months ago. The main sticking point is the level of residual payments due to actors for content sold on DVD or streamed over the internet.

As had been widely expected, Reed Elsevier cancelled plans to sell off its RBI business magazines division because of a lack of suitable buyers. Titles include entertainment trade bible Variety, medical journal The Lancet and advertising titles including Strategies in France and B&T in Australia.

Christie Hefner resigned as CEO of Playboy Enterprises, the adult entertainment and media group best known for its flagship Playboy magazine, founded by her father 55 years ago. 

As always, if you haven't already done so, please confirm your subscription to the free Adbrands Weekly Update by clicking here or on the link at the foot of this email. Thank you for your assistance! 

Simon Tesler
Publisher, Adbrands

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