Please note: If you are attempting to view these ads shortly after receiving this mailout on a Thursday, you may find that the video streams run slowly because of heavy simultaneous demand from other Adbrands subscribers who have also just received the same email. Please wait for the ads to load before pressing play, or try again later. Apologies for any inconvenience.

Loads to get through after our two week break, so we'll keep the preamble short. Several notable ad campaigns broke this week but if we stopped to show you them all we'd be here all day. So here's our pick of the four which we most felt like coming back to. First up, the debut campaign from Deutsch LA for Taiwanese mobile phone company HTC, whose Windows-powered HD2 smartphone just launched in the US and UK. With so many brands and models and mobile messages on the market, coming up with a new idea for a handset ad must be quite some challenge. Deutsch's approach is warm and intelligent, and about people not technology. There are two spots - see here for the other. The music's good too.

Next, Ogilvy New York's new spot for American Express, which finds humanity in numerous inanimate objects. We've seen this idea before (in spots for Audi and MTV Switch among others), but this is a more than elegant new addition to the field. 

Our week off has obviously filled us with an all-encompassing love of our fellow man because this spot too, a branding campaign for Heinz in the UK by AMV BBDO, also works best because of its observation of everyday human behaviour. My guess is that it may also offer a new angle on us Brits for all you international subscribers. Actually, yes we really are like this... and we also drink a lot of tea, especially around 4pm.

And finally, a joyously bizarre spot for Kraken Black Rum by New York creative boutique Dead As We Know It. We love the historical oddity of this, actually the first installment of three. Don't stop here; sample the following two chapters here. Now where can I get me a bottle of this stuff? 

In the news this past week: Brands & Advertisers

ZenithOptimedia issued a downgrade of its forecasts for worldwide ad expenditure. It now expects a fall of 9.9% for 2009 as a whole (rather than the 8.5% decline it anticipated in July), and growth of just 0.5% in 2010. Any real recovery will be delayed until 2011, when spend is expected to rise by 4.3%. However, mature markets such as North America, Western Europe and Japan will lag behind other regions. ZenithOptimedia expects developed regions to experience a further 2.9% fall next year, offsetting growth of as much as 7.8% in developing markets such as China, India and Eastern Europe. Developed markets should finally experience modest growth of 1.5% in 2011.

Credit crunch? What credit crunch? Consumers may not be buying cars yet, but the lure of the Apple store still looms large. Apple reported yet another quarter of extraordinary growth. For the three months to Sept 26th, the last of its fiscal year, the company sold more Mac computers and iPhones than in any previous quarter: a total of 3.05m Macs and 7.4m iPhones, as well as 10.2m iPods. As a result, full year revenues hit a new high of $36.5bn, an increase of 12% on the previous period. Net income jumped 18% to $5.7bn. Other technology companies also reported strong results, with Google's 3Q profits up 27% to $1.6bn and IBM's up 14% (to $3.2bn). Perhaps the most impressive leap came from Yahoo, whose net income for the quarter soared by 242% despite a fall in revenues.

Amazon also reported excellent figures, with 3Q sales up 28% to $5.5bn and net profit soaring 68% to $199m. Its Kindle electronic reading device was largely responsible for the gain. The company said that Kindle had become its single best-selling product in both sales value and unit numbers. It is thought to have sold around 945,000 readers since launch, almost twice the sales of the Sony e-Reader. However Amazon also faces a strong new challenger. America's biggest bricks and mortar bookseller Barnes & Noble this week launched its own electronic reader in a direct challenge to Kindle. Barnes & Noble's "Nook" is priced at $259, the same as the Kindle, and will be sold at all of the chain's 750 retail stores across America, as well as online. Unlike the Kindle, the Nook allows its owners to "lend" any books they purchase to friends. It also has the ability to display thumbnail book covers and some other material in colour at the bottom of the screen (while Kindle, for the time being, is still entirely monochrome). Another plus is that owners can browse the full text of any electronic title while inside a branch of B&N, via the store's wifi network. Elsewhere, streaming and download services are being supplied via AT&T. Kindle's wireless partner is Sprint.

The new incarnation of Microsoft's Windows operating system launched around the world, supported by a large-scale marketing campaign conceived by Crispin Porter & Bogusky and building upon the "I'm a PC" concept featuring ordinary users. (Here's the ad). Reviews of the new Windows 7 software have been generally positive, encouraging Microsoft's hopes that it will erase memories of poorly-received Windows Vista. (Nonetheless Apple was quick to poke a stick at the new operating system, with a funny new episode in its long-running Mac and PC ad series, entitled 'Broken Promises'. See it here). Also this week, in an attempt to borrow a little of the Apple Store's consumer lustre, Microsoft opened its first dedicated brand store, in Scottsdale, Arizona. A second store opens next week in Mission Viejo, California. 

Mattel's Barbie fashion doll is preparing for what is likely to be its most difficult holiday season to-date, despite a string of recent triumphs which should have left the brand at an all-time high. This year, Barbie celebrated her 50th anniversary with a big PR push and the launch of a new line of high-glamour Fashionista Barbie dolls. Better still, the brand scored a substantial victory over arch-rival Bratz, when a court upheld its claim that the competitor had been conceived while its creator was still an employee of Mattel. As a result, rights to the Bratz concept legally belong to Mattel not MGA. This effectively eliminated Barbie's main rival. But not for long. Bratz owner MGA Entertainment has been quick to launch a new competitor brand. Moxie Girlz launched in August, reminiscent in their look to the old Bratz dolls, and with a similar, though slightly more refined streetwise edge. In a new twist, girls can colour the dolls' hair and accessories themselves with tubes of supplied paint and glitter. And to add spice to the upcoming battle, there's a new entrant in the market as well, Liv dolls from Canadian company Spin Master, a highly regarded maker of boys action toys including Bakugan and Air Hogs. In a worrying development for Mattel, Redbook magazine's influential annual gift guide The Toy Insider overlooked Fashionista Barbie for its list of Hot 20 Toys for the 2009 holiday season, in favour of both Moxie Girlz and Liv.

Chrysler is expected to unveil a complete overhaul of its product portfolio next week as it moves forward under the new management of Italy's Fiat. Among the changes anticipated are a return to the US of Fiat's sporty Alfa Romeo brand for the first time in almost 20 years, as well as the introduction of the Fiat 500 mini-car, possibly under the Chrysler banner. The group is also expected to confirm the discontinuation of several current models including the Dodge Grand Caravan minivan and Caliber compact, Chrysler Sebring and Jeep Commander.. However none of these changes are likely to take place before 2012, creating a significant question mark over how exactly struggling Chrysler will survive over the next 18 months. Its US market share is already in sharp decline, falling to 8.3% in September from 11.1% a year earlier. 

Meanwhile Ford named Geely of China as the preferred bidder for the Volvo Cars business. The two sides entered exclusive negotiations for a limited period. Geely reassured Volvo employees that, if a deal is reached, it will maintain the company's existing production and research facilities, as well as its headquarters in Sweden.

Troubled banking giant Citigroup could be forced to sell one of its most profitable regional subsidiaries, Mexican arm Banamex, because of local laws which prohibit ownership of the country's banks by a foreign government. As a result of  the bailout Citi received last year from Washington, it is in effect controlled by the US government. Opposition  politicians in Mexico are calling for Banamex to be returned to national ownership, and even the country's central bank appears to support the case for a partial IPO of Citigroup's shareholding. However, Citi considers Banamex to be a key part of the business - it now accounts for as much as 15% of its profits. As a result, the group is struggling to raise cash to pay off its remaining government debt, a situation which would remove the political issue altogether. Elsewhere in the banking sector, Morgan Stanley agreed to sell most of its retail asset management division, including the separately branded Van Kampen business, to Invesco; and Bank of America sold First Republic, a private banking and wealth management firm inherited as part of Merrill Lynch, to private equity investors. In Britain, Barclays acquired the banking and mortgage operations of pension manager Standard Life. 

In another regulatory wrangle, Dutch financial services giant ING submitted to the EU's demands for a radical overhaul of its structure. Europe's competitions regulator is unhappy with ING's continued dominance in the Benelux region considering that it owes its post-credit crunch survival only to an emergency bailout by the Dutch government. As a result, ING is to be forced to split in half, severing its insurance and financial services operations into two separate entities. It will also sell off the US arm of its ING Direct banking business, which was responsible for most of its subprime woes. That break-up, far more radical than had been anticipated, could have serious repercussions for the UK's Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group, each of whom is also in the EU's firing line. 

According to Bloomberg News, Procter & Gamble is one of several companies to have expressed interest in the air care division of Sara Lee, which includes the Ambi-Pur brand. P&G has begun to extend its Febreze brand into the general air freshener market in North America with a range of sprays and candles, but it has no presence in the European air care sector, currently split between Sara Lee, Reckitt Benckiser (Air Wick) and SC Johnson (Glade, Oust). However, for the time being, Sara Lee says it wants to sell the whole of its household care unit, which also includes Kiwi shoecare and Vapona insecticides. It recently agreed to sales of its European personal products division to Unilever.

German mail order giant Quelle is to close after failing to find a buyer. Once one of the country's biggest retailers, Quelle's sales have been eviscerated by web-based rivals. Parent company Arcandor, which filed for bankruptcy protection in the summer, hopes still to be able to sell its mail order operations outside Germany, and is also seeking a buyer for department store chain Karstadt. Its controlling stake in travel company Thomas Cook was acquired by institutional investors last month. 

Swedish mobile phone company Tele2 was in trouble with the government of Latvia this week over an elaborate PR stunt. The company was responsible for digging a huge hole which was then dressed up to look like the impact crater from a meteorite strike, complete with smoking chemicals. The fake hole was meant to serve as the teaser for a forthcoming mobile phone promotion but, almost inevitably, it also attracted the attention of the Latvian emergency services and military, who immediately sent out armoured units and scientists to cordon off the area and test for radiation. The revelation that the whole thing had been an elaborate hoax did not go down well with Latvia's government which promptly cancelled its own telecommunications contract with Tele2, and issued the company with a bill for the cost of calling out the national guard. "The Interior Ministry does not want to do business with a firm that promotes itself at our expense," huffed interior minister Linda Murniece.

In the news this past week: Agencies

Quarterly figures from the big marketing services groups revealed a continuing squeeze within the industry, especially for US groups Omnicom and Interpublic. Omnicom's 3Q revenues fell 14% to $2.8bn, and net income dropped by almost 23% to $166m. As a result, combined revenues for the nine months to-date were down 15% to $8.5bn, while net income was $564m, down 23%. In organic terms, stripping out currency fluctuations, acquisitions and disposals, 3Q revenue declined 11%. In a research note, Deutsche Bank analyst Matt Chesler noted that results were in line with expectations but forecast that the group will lag behind its European peers as markets improve over the coming months. "We sense," he added "that 3Q did not live up to management's expectations and that the usual Omnicom beat was nowhere to be seen. Unless recent positive comments by the European agency execs prove overly-optimistic, Omnicom's underperformance will have become a trend, something uncommon for the traditionally best-in-class agency."

Interpublic also felt the pain of the continuing downturn, with 3Q revenues down 18% to $1.4bn. (The organic decline was 14%). The group's international operations paid the highest price, with reported sales down by almost 24%, compared to a slump of 13% in the US. Year-to-date revenues totalled $4.2bn, down 17%. Net income came in at $24m for the quarter, almost half last year's result, but still at the top end of analysts' expectations. IPG's YTD net weighs in at a loss of $16m, with the latest quarter's profit offset by earlier losses. That compares with a $78m profit for the same period in 2008. In a conference call with analysts, CEO Michael Roth acknowledged some difficulty at McCann which had, he said, "felt the brunt of the issues in the tech and auto sectors". He identified Draftfcb as the group's strongest performer, and also talked up the merger of Deutsch and Lowe Worldwide. He denied that cost savings had been the main reason to merge the two units, although that would be an additional benefit. Instead he said the decision was driven by "a strategic fit and an opportunity to grow both businesses". Deutsche Bank's Chesler called the results "surprisingly decent", despite IPG's downbeat forecast for the current quarter.

By contrast with the Americans, France's two marketing groups experienced a slightly better quarter. Publicis Groupe reported a decline of just 5% in 3Q revenues to E1.05bn (equivalent to around $1.5bn at current exchange rates, so above Interpublic). The sharpest falls were felt in Europe and the Asia Pacific region, where growth in China failed to offset steep declines in Japan, South Korea and Australia. The organic decline was equivalent to a little over 7% in 3Q, an improvement on the previous quarter's near-9% decline. Havas reported a 10% slide in 3Q revenues to E326m, while the year-to-date figure dipped 8% to just over E1.0bn. The group identified the UK as one of its poorest markets, with 3Q revenues down almost 14%, partly as a result of the weak pound. Excluding the effects of one-off gains, net income remained stable. WPP will be the last of the big five to report, with figures due out tomorrow (Friday).

Reports have begun to emerge that German marketing group Commarco, parent to the Scholz & Friends network, has opened negotiations to acquire struggling local rival Springer & Jacoby.

COI shortlisted three media networks to compete for the British government's substantial media budget. Total billings are around £250m. The three contenders are a bespoke partnership between Starcom MediaVest and digital specialist i-level, entitled Smile; a WPP construct operating as M4C; and Aegis Media's Carat and Posterscope agencies. An announcement is expected early next year, and the four year contract will run from April 2010.

It's been a busy couple of weeks for assignment changes and pitches, leading to much grumbling from agencies that most new reviews are being motivated not by creative considerations but the need for brandowners to slash costs. Several senior figures acknowledged that clients now demand "more for less" from their agencies. Among the new changes, IPG's Deutsch was awarded the Volkswagen account in North America; Ogilvy collected global creative for UPS; Danone continued to confirm local media appointments around the globe, but so far there have been no major switches of agency; PepsiCo's Quaker shifted all of its creative accounts out of Omnicom's Goodby Silverstein to stablemate Juniper Park, a unit of BBDO; McCann picked up creative and digital for investment fund manager iShares; confectioner Ferrero called a review of its substantial German media account out of Vizeum; Australian retailer David Jones shifted media out of MediaCom into Mitchells; and Energy BBDO and Jim Beam bourbon agreed to go their separate ways. For all other appointments, subscribers can access the full Adbrands Account Assignments database here. 

In the news this past week: Media

Andy Duncan, outgoing head of struggling UK broadcaster Channel 4, confirmed a tie-up with YouTube to begin free online streaming of full-length programmes from early next year. The channel will make a variety of past and present shows available for viewing, but only in the UK.

Barry Diller, chairman of digital media group IAC, suggested that he had reached the end of the road in his attempts to establish search engine Ask.com - the former AskJeeves - as a viable competitor to Google, Yahoo and Bing. "The big steps we've been out and after for the last several years in search [have] not been achieved and you'd have to say that the future is speculative," he commented. He confirmed, in a cryptically roundabout way, that the business is effectively up for sale. "We've been asked a lot whether we're open to consolidating transactions in the area of search. The answer is yes and it's unlikely that we would be the consolidator." Microsoft is seen by most observers as the most likely buyer.

Advertising Age named Rodale's Women's Health as its Magazine of the Year 2009. Launched four years ago as a spin-off from the company's Men's Health flagship, it has performed ahead of expectations and of the rest of the hard-hit monthly magazine market. In an exceptionally difficult economic environment, the title's ad pages fell by considerably less than the market average, while paid circulation has been soaring, reaching an average of almost 1.48m copies per issue for the first six months of the year. Meredith Corp was named as Publishing Company of the Year - its Better Homes & Gardens also made AdAge's A-List. Hearst's Food Network magazine was Launch of the Year.

As always, if you haven't already done so, please confirm your subscription to the free Adbrands Weekly Update by clicking here or on the link at the foot of this email. Thank you for your assistance! 

Simon Tesler
Publisher, Adbrands

Forwarding this email to colleagues? No problem at all. The more the merrier as far as we're concerned. But we're also very happy to take that responsibility off your hands if you'd prefer it. Just drop us a line by return email with the addresses of your colleagues and we'll add them to our list. There's no charge, and don't worry, we won't send them anything else.